WANCHESE – The Outer Banks have always been shaped by weather changes, but the forces threatening Dare County’s oceanfront homes today represent an acceleration of natural processes that scientists say will only intensify in the coming decades.

At a meeting Thursday night (Sept. 18, 2025) at the Coastal Studies Institute in Wanchese, Dr. Reide Corbett painted a sobering picture of the scientific factors converging to put hundreds of oceanfront properties at risk. The session drew about 200 concerned residents, government officials, and experts grappling with a crisis that has already claimed multiple homes in the past several years.

An article about citizens questions and concerns, can be found by clicking here.

Ancient Patterns, Modern Acceleration

Corbett, the institute’s executive director, emphasized that coastal change itself isn’t new. Historical maps dating to 1733 show the North Carolina coastline has been in constant flux for centuries. Even over geological time, the region has experienced dramatic shifts as ice ages locked up ocean water in glaciers, then released it back to the sea.

“During the last glacial maximum, when a lot of the ocean’s water was trapped in ice sheets, our shoreline was just beyond the continental shelf break,” Corbett explained, noting that sea levels have varied by hundreds of feet over millennia.

But what’s happening now represents a significant departure from historical norms. Current data from tide gauges at Duck and Oregon Inlet show sea level rising at rates of 5 to 5.5 millimeters per year – about 1.5 feet every 100 years – along the Outer Banks.

One Foot by 2050 – And Rising

The implications are stark. North Carolina’s 2024 sea level report projects at least one foot of sea level rise by 2050 relative to 2000 levels – and the region has already experienced half of that increase.

“It took the previous hundred years to reach a one foot rise in sea level,” Corbett noted. “So the rate of sea level rise today is at least double what it was in the previous hundred years.”

The projections become more uncertain beyond 2050, with estimates ranging from 2.5 to over 8 feet of rise by 2100, depending on global climate scenarios. But scientists emphasize that given current trajectories, the rise won’t slow after mid-century.

Northeast North Carolina faces particular challenges because the land itself is slowly subsiding while changes in the Gulf Stream’s strength also influence local sea levels. This means the region experiences “relative sea level rise” – the combined effect of rising waters and sinking land.

Erosion Rates Reaching Crisis Levels

Sea level rise compounds an already serious erosion problem. Division of Coastal Management data shows 90% of the Outer Banks is experiencing erosion, with rates averaging about five feet per year. But some areas face far more dramatic losses.

“There are areas like Rodanthe, like Buxton, that have rates of erosion as high as 13 plus feet per year,” Corbett said.

This erosion isn’t uniform or predictable year to year. As National Park Service Superintendent Dave Hallac explained, vertical erosion can be particularly devastating, removing five to six feet of supporting sand from around home pilings in a single storm event.

A 1968 study published in Marine Geology documented erosion in the Cape Hatteras area showing losses of 1,750 to 2,500 feet of beach over roughly a century – demonstrating that rapid coastal change preceded recent climate impacts.

Multiple Stressors Converging

The current crisis results from multiple factors working in concert. Climate data shows the ocean surface is now about one degree Celsius warmer than 50 years ago, contributing to sea level rise through thermal expansion and increased ice melt from glaciers and ice sheets.

Storm patterns are also shifting. While scientists debate changes in storm intensity, there’s clear evidence of storms carrying more rainfall. A NOAA dataset tracking billion-dollar weather disasters shows a marked increase in major events since 1980, with tropical cyclones, severe storms, and flooding dominating recent decades.

“We are seeing an increase in the number of storms, the intensity of storms,” Corbett said. “Certainly we’re seeing storms that have a lot more rain, a lot more incident rain during the time of those storms.”

Hidden Consequences: Water Tables and Septic Systems

Rising seas create problems that extend beyond shoreline erosion. Higher sea levels lead to elevated water tables, which affect drainage after rain events and threaten the function of septic systems that serve much of the Outer Banks.

“Most of our Outer Banks, majority of a lot of eastern North Carolina for that matter, is on onsite wastewater septic systems,” Corbett explained. These systems require about three feet of unsaturated soil to properly treat wastewater before it reaches groundwater. As water tables rise, that critical treatment zone shrinks, creating potential water quality and environmental health issues.

The Park Service has documented extensive septic system failures. Between August 12 and October 1, 2024, staff collected over 20,000 pieces of damaged wastewater systems between Rodanthe and Buxton, requiring swimming advisories until water testing confirmed safety.

Limited Options Ahead

The scientific evidence points to few viable long-term solutions. Corbett outlined three basic approaches: protect (through measures like beach nourishment), accommodate (such as elevating structures), or retreat (moving or removing buildings).

Beach nourishment, while helpful, is not a permanent solution. “Beach nourishment buys time to develop what the next solution might be,” Corbett emphasized. “That’s ultimately what you’re doing with nourishment… it’s not the solution to the problem at hand.”

The meeting acknowledged that while scientists have “a pretty good handle on the science and understand the drivers of the change,” the real challenge lies in community decisions about how to address these scientifically documented threats.

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For more information on North Carolina’s sea level projections, visit the state’s Division of Coastal Management website. The 2024 Sea Level Report is available online at NC Coastal Management. The meeting will be available on the Dare County YouTube channel and public TV station in the near future.