Who Will Replace Thom Tillis? 2026 Senate Contenders

BY MILES LAYTON

US Senator Thom Tillis, maybe channeling Johnny Paycheck, announced Sunday that he is not running for reelection.

“As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term,” Tillis said in a statement published in The Hill. “That is true since the choice is between spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington or spending that time with the love of my life Susan, our two children, three beautiful grandchildren, and the rest of our extended family back home. It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election.”  

Rather than dance around the issue, let’s talk plain – Tillis has been treading water for a while now with President Trump over key issues like immigration reform and executive authority to impose tarriffs, so voting against the “Big Beautiful Bill” – right or wrong – was the end. 

Late Saturday night, Trump hammered Tillis on social media — from Truth Social:  

Citing his concerns about Medicaid funding and other issues in the bill, Tillis joined Democrats and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, in his opposition to the “Big Beautiful Bill” on Saturday.

“I will always do what is in the best interest of North Carolina, even when that puts me at odds with my own party,” Tillis posted to Senate page. “When Senate leaders of my party presented this bill, I did what every American should expect from their U.S. Senator: I worked to gather the facts and comprehensively analyze what the impact would be on the people I swore an oath to represent. 

“I did my homework on behalf of North Carolinians, and I cannot support this bill in its current form. It would result in tens of billions of dollars in lost funding for North Carolina, including our hospitals and rural communities. This will force the state to make painful decisions like eliminating Medicaid coverage for hundreds of thousands in the expansion population, and even reducing critical services for those in the traditional Medicaid population. 

“We can and must do better than this. The Senate should return to the House’s Medicaid approach. That plan includes commonsense reforms to address waste, fraud, and abuse, and implements work requirements for some able-bodied adults to ensure taxpayer-funded benefits are going to our most vulnerable neighbors.

“There is a lot for North Carolinians to love about the rest of the One Big Beautiful Bill, including extending the historic Trump Tax Cuts, increasing the child tax credit, providing historic funding for border security, and ending wasteful spending. We can and must accomplish this without hurting our rural communities and hospitals, and without jeopardizing access to care for hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians who need it the most.”

From Tillis’ office regarding an analysis on Medicaid:

Recently, I remember talking to a longtime party grandee, a local one at that, about Tillis’ chances. The man said that 80 percent of the time, Tillis voted with Trump and supported policies from the MAGA wing of the party. But my response was that the remaining 20 percent can and will, always have in Tillis’ case, even going back to when he was serving as Speaker of the NC House between 2011-15, cause him grief because it’s hard to be moderate, especially these days no matter what political jersey you wear.  

“It has been a blessing to go on a journey from living in a trailer park and making minimum wage as a young man to having the honor of serving as U.S. Senator for North Carolina,” Tillis said in a statement issued Sunday. “I am proud of my career in public service, including hard-fought victories like passing historic tax reform as North Carolina Speaker; and working in the Senate to help pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and confirm three conservative Supreme Court justices and counting.”

Tillis, 64, emphasized his growing frustration with Washington’s partisanship — maybe a little Queen, “I want to break free.”  

“In Washington over the last few years, it’s become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species,” Tillis said in a statement, adding, “It underscores the greatest form of hypocrisy in American politics. When people see independent thinking on the other side, they cheer. But when those very same people see independent thinking coming from their side, they scorn, ostracize, and even censure.”

Even before the Senate vote and afterward with Trump posting Sunday that he planned to meet with potential primary challengers, I’m sure Tillis weighed his options about the battle ahead for the upcoming campaign in 2026, both primary and general, especially considering Trump’s condemnation weighing heavily. 

But at the end of the day, Tillis probably just said f*** it, f*** it all” – maybe that’s considered “rage quiting” – but as adults, we’ve all been there, unappreciated by management, deciding daily whether to pick up the sword again against formidable odds, or decide to move onto battles that you can win, maybe make a difference. 

Tillis noted his lack of enthusiasm for another campaign. 

“As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term… It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking reelection,” he said to various news outlets on Sunday.   

Probably will get me in trouble, but I’ve seen this before – after a long career in politics, US Senator Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, whose name was a household word because he wielded enormous influence as the tie-breaking vote, opted not to run against the tide that overwhelming supported Trump, past and present, in the Mountaineers’ state.   

Other politicians – I’ll leave their names out – don’t know when to make a graceful exit and get destroyed either in the primary or the general. 

It is rare that you see a politician, long past their expiration date, remain in office. Though I’m sure there are many, I can think of one – Senator Robert Byrd, D-WV, who died in office, being the longest-serving U.S. Senator in history. I covered his funeral in Charleston, WVA – then Vice President Joe Biden gave the eulogy – good speech, different Biden then though. Much like Byrd, the same can be said for Dianne Feinstein, US senator from California from 1992 until her death in 2023.  

Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, Tillis’ departure means politicians from both parties are salivating at the chance to run for Senate. Democrats see a real chance of picking up a seat, and Republicans will wage a war to hold onto it and protect their majority.  

Here are the contenders, announced or otherwise, who may make a “go” of it.  

Listed in no particular order:  

Potential Candidates:

• Roy Cooper (Democrat): Former two-term Governor of North Carolina. There’s no denying that Cooper would be a strong candidate.  
• Lara Trump (Republican): Former co-chair of the Republican National Committee and daughter-in-law of Donald Trump. That last helps.  
• Jeff Jackson (Democrat): Current Attorney General of North Carolina.
• Michael Whatley (Republican): Current chair of the Republican National Committee. Strong supporter of Trump.  
• Michele Morrow (Republican): Nurse and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2024.
• Other potential candidates: Members of North Carolina’s U.S. House delegation, including Pat Harrigan, Richard Hudson, Brad Knott, Tim Moore, and Greg Murphy. State legislative leaders like Phil Berger and Destin Hall on the Republican side, and Robert Reives and Sydney Batch on the Democratic side, are also being considered. Maybe former Governor Pat McCrory, Republican, is doing the math like Cooper.  

Declared Candidates:

• Wiley Nickel (Democrat): Former U.S. Representative who previously served in the North Carolina State Senate.
• Don Brown (Republican): Former U.S. Navy JAG Officer, author, and attorney.
• Andy Nilsson (Republican): a retired businessman and former candidate for lieutenant governor